Global payments revenue is projected to grow to $2.4 trillion by 2029, according to new research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG). While growth is expected to moderate to 4% annually over the next five years, the industry is undergoing a foundational reset as agentic AI, digital currencies, and fintech business models begin to shape the next wave of expansion.
These findings come from BCG’s 23rd annual Global Payments Report : The Future Is(Anything but) Stable, released recently. The report draws on BCG’s proprietary Global Payments Model and includes forecasts and market dynamics across more than sixty economies, including South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Morocco, and Egypt, accounting for more than 90% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It identifies five structural forces reshaping the payments landscape: the rise of agentic AI, digital currencies such as stablecoins, fintech disruption, real-time account-to-account (A2A) systems, and the enduring importance of cost transformation. “This is a turning point for the industry,” said Inderpreet Batra, BCG managing director and senior partner and global head of the firm’s payments and fintech segment. “Traditional growth levers are losing force, but new drivers including agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation are rapidly coming into focus. The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade.”
New forces reshaping the industry
Among the key findings of the 2025 report, the global payments revenue reached $1.9 trillion in 2024, but future growth will slow. After growing at 8.8% annually since 2019, revenue expansion is expected to ease to 4% annually to $2.4 trillion by 2029. Africa’s payments revenue is expected to grow at approximately 10% CAGR, reaching $19 billion by 2029 (up from $9 billion in 2024).
· Aligned to this, transaction-based revenues remain strong, while deposit margin tailwinds slacken. Looking at overall growth (transaction-related and non-transaction-related revenue combined), Africa’s transaction revenues are forecast to see sustained double-digit growth, significantly outpacing Europe (3.5%), North America (3.4%), and Asia-Pacific (3.3%) over the same period.
· Additionally, Kenya’s payments revenues are forecast to grow from $0.5 billion in 2024 to $0.8 billion in 2029 (CAGR: 8%). Transaction revenues are the main driver in Kenya, with projected annual growth of 8% through 2029.
· Agentic AI on the other hand is set to influence over $1 trillion in e-commerce spending. According to BCG research, 81% of US consumers expect to use agentic AI tools to shop, which will shape more than half of all online purchases in the near future.
· Stablecoins reached $26 trillion in volume, although real-world payments account for only 1% of that total. The market remains heavily concentrated in facilitating crypto trading.
· Payments fintechs generated $176 billion in revenue in 2024 and are growing at 23% annually. Payments-focused fintechs have attracted over $135 billion in equity funding over the past 25 years and now make up 45% of total fintech revenue. The top performers are growing three times as fast as incumbents.
· Real-time A2A payment volumes rose 40% globally in 2024. These systems now account for around a quarter of digital retail payments worldwide, even exceeding 50% of transactions in selected markets like India and Brazil. In the Middle East and Africa, where real-time systems are still emerging, adoption is projected to reach more than 50% by 2030.
· Across key African markets, fintech and mobile innovation, coupled with real-time payment initiatives, are accelerating the shift from cash to digital—positioning Africa as a payments growth engine compared to mature global markets.
“We’re entering an era where growth and complexity go hand in hand,” said Markus Ampenberger, BCG managing director and partner. “The next winners in payments won’t just be fast adopters of technology. They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business and operating models, and customer value propositions.”
“As Africa’s payments sector accelerates towards $19 billion in revenues by 2029, Kenya is keeping pace with the continent’s digital transformation,” says Takeshi Oikawa, Managing Director and Partner, BCG Nairobi. “Kenya’s payment revenues are projected to grow by 8% annually through 2029, driven by strong transaction growth and widespread use of mobile money and real-time payment solutions. This momentum is accelerating financial inclusion and enabling new opportunities for businesses and consumers alike. Kenya’s experience demonstrates the power of fintech and mobile innovation to drive Africa’s journey toward becoming a global payments growth leader.”
